● RANGE NET ONLINEUTC --:--:--DATA EPOCH 27 OCT 2026 21:14ZWINDOW 14 DAYS
> LAUNCH-TRACKER // OUTLOOK MODULE
Launch Delay Outlook
SLIP PROBABILITY BOARD · BASE RATES FROM PAST LAUNCHES
07Vehicles on board
1284Launches in history
066Firm time 7 days out
>6HLate = slip
⚠ EXPERIMENTAL · Figures are historical rates for groups of launches, not predictions for a specific launch.
How To Read This Page
Operator briefing
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Delay ·
a launch that lifts off more than 6 hours after the operator's published firm date and time. "Go for launch" statements don't count as a firm time.
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Percentage ·
the share of past launches in the same group that slipped that way, measured the same number of days before launch.
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Group ·
a launch provider. SpaceX is split into Starlink and other SpaceX launches when both have enough history.
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Not a model ·
the figure says nothing about this specific launch. It excludes weather, vehicle or payload readiness, and range conflicts.
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Firm time only ·
it applies only once a firm time is published. About 5% of past launches had one a week ahead. Launches without one, from providers with little history, show no forecast.
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Confidence ·
how many past launches the number rests on.
Very low · under 25Low · 25 to 59Moderate · 60+
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Weather ·
shown beside the number, never blended in. Values are the highest across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts can disagree because they measure different things.
Range Schedule // T+0 to T+14
Blip color = share of similar launches that slipped
under 20%20 to 40%over 40%no forecast shownnow
Slip Probability vs Lead Time
Slipped more than 6 h · band = 95% range
The earlier a firm time is published, the less it holds. A SpaceX time set 1 day out held 87% of the time. One set 7 days out held about half the time.
SpaceXAll providers (mostly SpaceX)Hollow point = very low confidence (10 to 11 launches)
Vehicle Consoles
Sorted by target time
Track Record
Predictions issued since 26 Oct 2026
05Saved
00Scored
05Awaiting launch result
00Not scoreable
Backtest: each past launch predicted using only earlier launches, from groups with enough history. The number is a group average, so it should match the overall rate. The test checks whether rates held steady over time.
By lead time · predicted vs actually slipped
By size of prediction · predicted vs actually slipped
Average predictionActually slipped
The method can't tell which launches within a group will slip. That would show up as a clear gap between the low and high bands. Across the board it has run high: predicted rates exceeded actual at every lead time.